SpaceX, Halved in Just One Month After IPO... Underperforming 90% of US IPOs
On June 12, 2026, SpaceX (SPCX) made a spectacular debut on the Nasdaq with the largest IPO in history. The offering price was $135**, the closing price on day one was **$160.95, and just four days later, it hit an all‑time high of $225.64 — earning praise from the entire market.
But that euphoria didn't last. As the image clearly shows, SpaceX is now "IS CRASHING" — and it's falling hard.
📉 The Harsh Reality in Numbers
|
Metric |
Value |
Note |
|
IPO
Offer Price |
$135 |
June 12,
2026 |
|
Market
Debut Price |
$150 |
Opening
price on listing day |
|
All‑Time
High |
$225.64 |
June 16,
2026 |
|
52‑Week
Low |
$107.01 |
July 27,
2026 |
|
Recent
Close (July 28) |
$116.41 |
|
|
Drop
from Peak |
~ -48% |
$225.64 →
$116.41 |
|
Drop
from Offer Price |
~ -14% |
$135 →
$116.41 |
|
US
IPOs that have risen since IPO |
90% |
SpaceX is
among the losers |
🚨 SpaceX has underperformed 90% of all US IPOs since July 2009.
🔍 Why Did This Happen?
1️⃣ Excessive Valuation vs. Lackluster Fundamentals
At IPO, SpaceX's market capitalization reached approximately $1.77 trillion**. The problem? **Full‑year 2025 revenue was only $18.67 billion, and the company posted a net loss of $4.94 billion. In other words, the market cap was 90 times revenue — an astronomical multiple.
In Q1 2026, the AI segment alone posted an operating loss of $2.47 billion**, dragging the total net loss to **$4.28 billion. Starlink, the only profitable business unit, generated $3.26 billion in quarterly revenue and $1.19 billion in operating profit — but that's far too little to support a $2 trillion valuation.
2️⃣ IPO Hype Fades, Cold Realism Sets In
As the initial frenzy subsided, investors started asking the fundamental question: "Is this company really worth $2 trillion?"
According to Capital.com's senior market analyst, "the decline reflects profit‑taking, a valuation re‑assessment, and the unwinding of previously extremely bullish positions."
3️⃣ The Looming Lock‑up Expiration
An even bigger threat is the upcoming supply overhang. Insider shares, which were restricted from selling for 180 days post‑IPO, will begin to unlock starting early August. Some analysts warn that by early September, insiders could sell up to ~44% of the company's shares, potentially increasing the free‑float by about 900%.
With such a massive wave of new supply, no one can confidently predict how much further the stock might fall.
4️⃣ Starship: Hope and Uncertainty
Starship is the defining project for SpaceX's future. The 13th test flight on July 24 successfully deployed 20 Starlink V3 satellites and reignited the engine in space — meaningful progress. However, the Super Heavy booster failed to land as planned, reminding everyone that the system is not yet fully operational.
As Evercore ISI analysts noted, "Starship has not yet proven its scalability" — a cautious stance that keeps the market on edge.
🧠 Key Takeaways for Investors
|
Positive
Factors |
Negative
Factors |
|
• 27
out of 31 Wall Street analysts rate it 'Buy' |
• ~50%
drop from peak, more downside possible |
|
• Average
price target: $242 (2x current price) |
• ~$5
billion in annual losses |
|
•
Starlink is the only cash‑generating engine and growing |
• Massive
lock‑up expiration in August |
|
• Starship's
13th flight hit key technical milestones |
•
Starship still far from commercial maturity |
🔮 What Lies Ahead
Raymond James has set a bold target of *$800** with a strong buy recommendation, while at the other extreme, some analysts argue that *"a reasonable price would be $30."
The two major inflection points to watch:
August 4 – First earnings release since going public.
August 6 – The start of the lock‑up expiration.
📌 "Hope is not an investment strategy." — A quote from the sole analyst who maintained a 'Sell' rating on SpaceX and has remained correct throughout this downturn.
SpaceX's visionary technology and Elon Musk's bold ambition are undeniably compelling. But capital markets ultimately judge companies by earnings and value — not by dreams. The fall of SpaceX serves as a powerful reminder of the gap between overheated expectations and hard financial reality.
